A Phase 1 Study to Assess HM15275 in Healthy and Obese Subjects.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-05-02, after 2024-05-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsafety tolerabilitycelltolerability pharmacokineticscancer
Phrases that lowered it: healthycigaretteskgproductspharmacokinetics -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 138 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 17 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A First-in-human Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of HM12460A NCT01724814 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A First-in-Human, Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of HM15136(Efpegerglucagon) in Healthy Subjects NCT04032782 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study of Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple-Ascending Doses of PHP-303 in Otherwise Healthy Overweight or Obese Subjects NCT03775278 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- A First-in-human Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of HM15211(Efocipegtrutide) NCT03374241 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of HM11260C in Adult Obesity Patients Without Diabetes Mellitus NCT06174779 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.