Efficacy and Safety of Oral Azelaprag Plus Once Weekly Tirzepatide Compared with Tirzepatide Alone in Participants with Obesity Aged 55 Years and Over
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-02-12, after 2024-06-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: typecarcinomapancreaticplacebomultiple
Phrases that lowered it: weightparticipantskgbodyand safety -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 50% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 38121 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 24807 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 10.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tirzepatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obesity or Overweight for the Maintenance of Weight Loss NCT04660643 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3298176 (Tirzepatide) For the Maintenance of Body Weight Reduction in Participants Who Have Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities NCT06047548 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obesity or Overweight NCT04184622 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obesity Disease NCT04844918 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of ALT-801 in the Treatment of Obesity NCT05295875 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.