First-in-Human Dose Escalation Study of XMT-1536 in Cancers Likely to Express NaPi2b

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellventricularqtccancerleft
  Phrases that lowered it: ovarianpatientsthe pharmacokineticsliveraminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• First-in-Human Dose Expansion Study of XMT-1536 in Cancers Likely to Express NaPi2b NCT06517485 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• First-in-Human Study of XMT-1592 in Patients With Ovarian Cancer and NSCLC Likely to Express NaPi2b NCT04396340 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of AUR 109 in Patients With Colorectal, Ovarian, and Renal Cancers NCT06760702 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1 Clinical Trial of AUR106 in Patients With Relapsed Advanced Malignancies NCT05861947 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Olaparib, Durvalumab, and Tremelimumab in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Ovarian, Fallopian Tube or Primary Peritoneal Cancer With BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutation NCT02953457 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.