First-in-Human Phase I/II Study of FHND-9041 in Patients With EGFR Mutated Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnbreastradiationcreatininebiopsy
  Phrases that lowered it: lineparticipantsdrugsthe trialdiseases
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Alflutinib in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With T790M NCT03452592 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• XZP-5809-TT1 Tablets in Patients With T790M Mutation-positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04622072 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• Osimertinib in First and Second Line Treatment of NSCLC Harboring EGFR Mutations From Circulating Tumor DNA NCT02769286 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Study of TY-9591 in Patients With a Lung Cancer With Brain or Leptomeningeal Metastases With EGFR Mutation NCT05146219 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Volitinib in Combination With Gefitinib in EGFR(+) NSCLC NCT02374645 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.