A Study to Investigate Multiple Ascending Doses and Relative Bioavailability of AZD5004 in Healthy Participants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitytype diabetesdiseaseascendingtolerability and
  Phrases that lowered it: healthybioavailabilitytabletparticipantskg
• Sponsor's past trials: 1920 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study in Healthy Participants to Investigate Relative Bioavailability of AZD5004 in Three Solid Oral Formulations NCT06996886 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Pharmacokinetics of Different Formulations and Safety of AZD5004 in Healthy Participants Aged 18 to 55 Years NCT07455825 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability and Safety of Different Formulations of AZD4831 in Fasted State in Healthy Volunteers. NCT05457270 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Multiple Ascending Oral Doses of AZD5213 in Healthy Male and Non Fertile Female Subjects NCT01171105 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Single Ascending Oral Doses of AZD5213 in Healthy Male and Non Fertile Female Subjects NCT01121302 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.