A First-in-human Study of BGB-53038, a Pan-KRAS Inhibitor, Alone or in Combinations in Participants With Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors With KRAS Mutations or Amplification

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercell lungsmall cellnon smalltumors
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspharmacokineticsto evaluateevaluate theand safety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate BGB-3245 (Brimarafenib) With Panitumumab in Participants With Advanced or Metastatic RAS Mutant Colorectal and Pancreatic Ductal Cancers NCT06194877 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Study of Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Antitumor Activity of BGB-3245 in Participants With Advanced or Refractory Tumors NCT04249843 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1a/1b BGB-290 for Advanced Solid Tumors. NCT02361723 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• First-in-Human Study of JNJ-74699157 in Participants With Tumors Harboring the KRAS G12C Mutation NCT04006301 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986466 With Adagrasib With or Without Cetuximab in Participants With Kirsten Rat Sarcoma Virus Glycine 12 to Cysteine (KRAS G12C)-Mutant Solid Tumors NCT06024174 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.