A Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of EVO756 in Adults With Chronic Inducible Urticaria

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: concurrentand efficacysafety tolerabilityconfirmedsymptomatic
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thescreeningefficacywill evaluateopen label
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 1b, Open-Label Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacodynamics of EP262 in Subjects With Chronic Inducible Urticaria NCT06050928 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Phase 2b Study of EVO756 in Adults With Moderate to Severe Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU) NCT06873516 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of Ligelizumab in Adolescents and Adults With Chronic Inducible Urticaria Who Remain Symptomatic Despite Treatment With H1- Antihistamines NCT05024058 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Effects of EP262 in Subjects With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria NCT06077773 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Mode of Action Study of Omalizumab in Patients With Chronic Idiopathic Urticaria (CIU) Who Fail to Respond to Antihistamine Treatment NCT01599637 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.