A Phase 1 Dose Escalation Study of VX-973 in Healthy Participants
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-07-21, after 2024-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multipleand pharmacodynamicspharmacodynamics ofsafety tolerabilitykey
Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthysingleto evaluateabsorption -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 170 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 38 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 1 Dose Escalation Study of VX-973 in Healthy Adults NCT05866055 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Dose Escalation Study of VX-993 in Healthy Participants NCT05653323 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Study Evaluating the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics, of VX-993 NCT06226454 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Dose Escalation Study of Oral VX-708 in Healthy Participants NCT05347394 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Dose Escalation Study of Intravenous VX-993 in Healthy Adults NCT06394167 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.