Assessment of the Effects and Tolerability of RD03/2016 for the Treatment of Bacterial Conjunctivitis in Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: oculareyephase iito assessacute
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andwith moderateinjectionthe efficacymale
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 78953 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8425 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of PRO-157 vs Moxifloxacin vs Gatifloxacin in Patients With Bacterial Conjunctivitis (Pazufloxacin) NCT02980523 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of IVIEW-1201 in Acute Bacterial Conjunctivitis NCT05816070 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of the Ophthalmic Pazufloxacin 0.6% for Bacterial Conjunctivitis, Compared to Gatifloxacin 0.3%. NCT03696342 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• Moxifloxacin AF Ophthalmic Solution for Treatment of Bacterial Conjunctivitis NCT00759148 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Vancomycin Ophthalmic Ointment in Patients With Moderate to Severe Bacterial Conjunctivitis NCT02432807 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.