A Phase 1b Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacodynamics of AZD4144 in Participants With Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular and Chronic Kidney Disease.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronic kidneykidney diseasecoronaryrandomizationactive
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsindexscreeningvisitmale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1950 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 183 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of AZD4144 in Participants With Severe Renal Impairment, End-stage Kidney Disease, and in Healthy Participants NCT06693765 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• To Assess the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of AZD8233 in Participants With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and Healthy Participants. NCT05065463 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• Study to Investigate the Effect of Renal Impairment on the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of AZD6234 NCT06845813 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacodynamics of AZD4144 in Participants With Obesity NCT06942923 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of AZD5718 in Participants With Proteinuric Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04492722 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.