Study to Investigate the Immunogenicity, Reactogenicity, and Safety of mRNA-1083 Vaccine (SARS-CoV-2 [COVID-19] and Influenza) in Adults ≥50 Years of Age
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-11-17, after 2024-11-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priortreateddefinedfailureintervention
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzaimmunogenicityhealthyvaccines -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 39 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 28 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 53 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sars cov2
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of mRNA-1083 (SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza) Vaccine in Healthy Adult Participants, ≥50 Years of Age NCT06097273 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Study of mRNA-based Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Multi-component Vaccines in Healthy Adults NCT05827926 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Safety, Reactogenicity, and Immunogenicity Study of mRNA-1045 (Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus [RSV]) or mRNA-1230 (Influenza, RSV, and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) Vaccine in Adults 50 to 75 Years Old NCT05585632 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Study to Investigate the Safety and Immunogenicity in Relation to Product Attributes of mRNA-1083 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2] and Influenza Vaccine) NCT06508320 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Study of mRNA-1010 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT04956575 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.