Study of a Combination Vaccine Comprised of Different Recombinant Spike Antigen Levels of a Matrix-M Adjuvanted Recombinant COVID-19 Vaccine and High-Dose Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Adult Participants 50 Years of Age and Older

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (118 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyuncontrolledchemotherapycardiacrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationinfluenzahealthyparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1109 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of a Combination Vaccine Comprised of Different Recombinant Spike Antigen Levels of a Matrix-M Adjuvanted Recombinant COVID-19 Vaccine and Recombinant Influenza Vaccine in Adult Participants 50 Years of Age and Older NCT06695130 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study of Monovalent and Bivalent Recombinant Protein Vaccines Against COVID-19 in Adults 18 Years of Age and Older NCT04904549 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Learn About a Combined COVID-19 and Influenza Shot in Healthy Adults NCT06237049 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of COVID-19 and Influenza Combination Vaccine NCT05519839 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Dose Finding Study to Evaluate The Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity of an Inactiviated, Adjuvanted SARS-CoV-2 Virus Vaccine Candidate Against Covid-19 in Healthy Subjects NCT04671017 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.