NT-101 Topical Ophthalmic Solution in Patients With Wet AMD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-05-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyerandomizationocularsubjectdiabetic
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalamdareasubject whoparticipants
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-Label, Phase 1 Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of Subcutaneous Elamipretide in Subjects With Intermediate Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT02848313 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Compare the Efficacy and Safety of HLX04-O with Ranibizumab in Subjects with WAMD NCT05003245 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of HLX04-O in Subjects With wAMD NCT04993352 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study Assessing the Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of SOK583A1 Versus Eylea® in Patients With Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration NCT04864834 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• 12 Week Patient Study in Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT01362348 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.