A First-in-human Study to Investigate Safety and Tolerability of SAR446959 in Participants With Osteoarthritis of the Knee

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (40 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1110 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mmhgpressureheartascendingdefined
  Phrases that lowered it: participantkneeparticipantsosteoarthritisrelevant
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Bone Health Study of SM04690 for the Treatment of Moderately to Severely Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03727022 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-concept Study to Assess the Efficacy, Tolerability and Safety of a Single Intraarticular Dose of GZ389988 Versus Placebo in Patients With Painful Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02845271 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LEVI-04 in Patients With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT05618782 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Patient-Reported and Radiographic Outcomes in Evaluating Lorecivivint (SM04690) for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03928184 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Target Engagement (TE) Study of GSK3858279 in Healthy Participants and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Repeat Doses in Participants With Osteoarthritis (OA) NCT03485365 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.