Study in Asymptomatic GRN-FTD Patients to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of VES001

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiplesafety tolerabilitycellasymptomaticcount
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningto investigateinvestigate thehealthyopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Oral ASN51 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT04759365 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• A Study of VRG50635 in Healthy Volunteers NCT06286475 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study Assessing the Safety of Oral ATH-399A in Healthy Adult Participants NCT06088784 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Cardiac Safety Study of an Investigational Drug to See How if Affects the Heart in People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations OFF Episodes NCT03187301 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Exposure of 4ET1103 in Healthy Human Volunteers NCT07586514 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.