Efficacy and Safety of BMSCs (CG-BM1) for ACLF Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (39 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-05-31, after 2023-03-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectsacutewillingscreening
Phrases that lowered it: liverpatientsdlbleedingclinical trial -
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 182 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 224 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 224 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 182 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- REVIVE(Randomized Exploratory Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Effectiveness of Stem Cell Product in Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis Patient) NCT01875081 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Allogenic Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy in Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure NCT02857010 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Allogeneic ABCB5-positive Stem Cells for Treatment of Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure NCT03860155 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of VS-01 in Adult Patients With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure and Ascites (UNVEIL-IT)® NCT05900050 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Mesenchymal Stem Cells After Renal or Liver Transplantation NCT01429038 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.