Efficacy and Safety of Empagliflozin or Semaglutide in Overweight/Obese Patients With Type 1 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectcancerchronictherapyacute
  Phrases that lowered it: type diabeteswith typemultiplesafetyhba1c
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Addition of Liraglutide to Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Treated With Multiple Daily Insulin Injections NCT02113332 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Meal-time Administration of Exenatide for Glycaemic Control in Type 1 Diabetic Cases NCT03017352 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Empagliflozin as Adjunctive to InSulin thErapy Over 52 Weeks in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (EASE-2) NCT02414958 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Look Into How Semaglutide, Together With a Lower Dose of Insulin Glargine, Compares to a Higher Dose of Insulin Glargine Alone in People With Type 2 Diabetes (SUSTAIN OPTIMIZE) NCT05514535 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Dulaglutide and Insulin MicrosecretiON in Type 1 Diabetes NCT03668470 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.