A Study in Healthy People to Compare How 3 Different Formulations of Survodutide Are Taken up in the Body

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: applyprclinical relevancebpevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyformulationmalebioavailabilitysingle dose
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 842 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study in Healthy People to Compare How 2 Different Formulations of Survodutide Are Taken up in the Body NCT07071974 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy People to Test How 3 Different Formulations of BI 764198 Are Taken up in the Body and How This is Influenced by Food NCT06955754 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy Men to Test How Zongertinib is Taken up in the Body When Taken With or Without Food NCT06075277 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of BI 456906 in Healthy Male Volunteers NCT03175211 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy People to Compare How 2 Different High Dose Formulations of BI 1015550 Are Taken up in the Body NCT06393127 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.