Efficacy of Varenicline Tartrate in Treating Frequent Premature Ventricular Contractions

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularplacebomyocardialinfarctionrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsonce dailyefficacytabletaccording
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 83718 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Etripamil for the Termination of Spontaneous Paroxysmal Supraventricular Tachycardia (PSVT). NCT03464019 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Etripamil Nasal Spray Self-Administration for the Termination of Spontaneous Episodes of Paroxysmal Supraventricular Tachycardia NCT05410860 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Varenicline (Champix) in Smoking Cessation for Patients Post-Acute Coronary Syndrome (EVITA) Trial NCT00794573 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Single-blind Pilot Study to Investigate Safety and Tolerability of the Chymase Inhibitor BAY1142524 in Clinically Stable Patients With Left-ventricular Dysfunction NCT02452515 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Treatment of an Inherited Ventricular Arrhythmia NCT05122975 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.