A Study to Assess the Adverse Events of Intramuscular Injections of AGN-151586 and OnabotulinumtoxinA in Adult Participants for the Change of Glabellar Lines (GL)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-11-03, after 2025-02-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: botulinumtreatmentlinesactive infectionin subjects
Phrases that lowered it: efficacysafetyparticipantadministrationsingle -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 118 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 19 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 421 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 118 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 47.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- onabotulinumtoxina
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- AGN-151586 Dose-Ranging Study for Treatment of Glabellar Lines NCT04096326 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate AGN-151586 Intramuscular Injections in Adult Participants for Treatment of Glabellar Lines NCT06308198 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Study of AGN-151586 in Japanese Participants With Moderate to Severe Glabellar Lines NCT06151561 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study to the Assess the Change in Condition and Adverse Events of OnabotulinumtoxinA X Injection in Adult Participants With Glabellar Lines NCT05100199 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity of Intramuscular AGN-151586 Injection in Adult Participants With Glabellar Lines NCT05248867 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.