Double-blind Comparative Randomized Multicenter

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cerebralthe patientdatedneed fornon
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyevaluate theto evaluatetrial todrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment With Xeomin Versus Botox in Children With Spastic Equine and Equinovarus Foot Deformation in Pediatric Cerebral Palsy NCT02188277 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Phase III Clinical Trial of Botulax® to Treat Children With Cerebral Palsy NCT01787344 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Long-term Open-label Study of Botulinumtoxin Type A to Treat Spasticity of Leg(s) or Leg(s) and Arm in Cerebral Palsy NCT01905683 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Efficacy and Tolerability Study of Sativex for the Treatment of Spasticity in Children Aged 8 to 18 Years NCT01898520 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK1358820 in Subjects With Post-stroke Upper Limb Spasticity NCT03261167 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.