Phase III Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of TK-254RX in Patients With Contusions
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-10-01, after 2025-02-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: injurypaindefinedpatientpatients
Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate thesafetyinvestigatorefficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 5 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 64 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- esflurbiprofen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- To Evaluate the Adhesion of TK-254RX on Healthy Participants NCT07307794 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Phase III Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety in Patients With Ankle Sprains. NCT06866613 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial With Diclofenac Sodium Medicated Plaster in Patients With Impact Injuries of the Limbs NCT04976088 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- To Assess the Effect of the Special Condition on the Pharmacokinetics and Tolerability of the Esflurbiprofen Topical System (EFTS) in Healthy Volunteers. NCT06870422 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- To Assess the Bioavailability of TK-254RX in Comparison with Oral Flurbiprofen Tablets and the Adhesion of TK-254RX in Healthy Subjects NCT06823284 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.