A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Weekly MET097 in Adults With Obesity or Overweight and T2DM

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2329 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcoronaryunstableegfrartery
  Phrases that lowered it: kgtype diabetesm2screeningmellitus
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2b Study to Examine the Safety and Efficacy of Once-Weekly MET097 in Adults With Obesity or Overweight NCT06712836 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• This Study Will Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of MET097 in Adult Participants With Overweight or Obesity NCT06857617 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of Orforglipron in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight and Type 2 Diabetes NCT05872620 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Glycemic Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of Exenatide Once Weekly to Those of Sitagliptin and Pioglitazone,in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Treated With Metformin (DURATION - 2) NCT00637273 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Preliminary Study of the Efficacy and Safety of MK-8521 for Type 2 Diabetes (MK-8521-004) NCT02492763 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.