Evaluation of the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AH-001 Following Topical Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Administration

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingsafety tolerabilitycellstolerability andmultiple
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyto evaluateevaluate thevolunteersalcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study in Subjects to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of GT20029 NCT05428449 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study of TDM-105795 in Male Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) NCT05244980 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Study of TDM-105795 Topical Solution in Male Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) NCT04913519 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Long-term Study to Determine Safety and Efficacy of Dutasteride in Male Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia NCT01831791 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• ATI-501 Oral Suspension Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Alopecia Areata, Alopecia Universalis or Alopecia Totalis NCT03594227 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.