Effects of Tirzepatide on Weight Loss and Chronic Inflammation in People With HIV
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-06-02, after 2025-11-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stableliverchronicweightdisease
Phrases that lowered it: antiretroviralhiv rnaartcopies mlhiv infection -
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 53 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 109664 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 56895 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 16.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tirzepatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- HIV and Fat Accumulation NCT01088295 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obesity or Overweight for the Maintenance of Weight Loss NCT04660643 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Raltegravir Therapy for Women With HIV and Fat Accumulation NCT00656175 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3298176 (Tirzepatide) For the Maintenance of Body Weight Reduction in Participants Who Have Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities NCT06047548 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obesity or Overweight NCT04184622 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.