Effect of Over-the-counter Analgesics on Postoperative Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painhourspostoperativesurgerypost
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsadvancedneckcombinationhead and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1.09972e+06 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 112588 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Preoperative Acetaminophen and Carbohydrate Loading NCT03131713 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Ibuprofen Plus Acetaminophen Versus Oxycodone Alone After Hand Surgery NCT03111186 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Postoperative Pain Management in Rhinoplasty NCT03584152 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing the Effectiveness and Safety of Extended Release (ER) Tramadol Hydrochloride (HCl)/Acetaminophen With Immediate Release (IR) Tramadol HCl/Acetaminophen in Participants With Moderate to Severe Postoperative Pain NCT01814878 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Acetaminophen vs Placebo in the Pre-operative Setting and Outcomes on Post-operative Pain, Nausea and Vomiting NCT02102555 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.