A Randomized, Double-Blind, Single-Center Clinical Study on the Efficacy of Naltrexone Implant in Antagonizing Opioid Agonist Hydromorphone

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartkidneyfunctioneyedisease
  Phrases that lowered it: effectevaluate theto evaluatedrugsdiseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 24.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Clinical Study on the Efficacy and Safety of Naltrexone Implant in Patients With Alcohol Use Disorder NCT07333638 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• OXN PR Tablet 5/2.5 mg and20/10 mg PK Study in Chinese Moderate to Severe Chronic Non-malignant Patients NCT02880475 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetic and Safety Study of Naltrexone Release From Subcutaneous BICX104 Pellets Compared to Vivitrol Injections NCT04828694 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Generation of Biological Samples Positive to Hydromorphone for Anti-doping Control NCT04081376 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• OTR Tablet 10 mg Fasted-state Bioequivalence Study NCT03403504 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.