Upadacitinib for Refractory Behcet's Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulncancermalignancyagentrefractory
  Phrases that lowered it: multiplescreeningand safetyevaluate theefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Ustekinumab, a Human Monoclonal Anti-IL-12/IL-23 Antibody, in Patients With Behçet Disease NCT02648581 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Induction Therapy With Anti-TNFα vs Cyclophosphamide in Severe Behçet Disease NCT03371095 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Anakinra for Behcet s Disease NCT01441076 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Randomized, Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Subjects With Active Behçet's Disease NCT02307513 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Tocilizumab for the Treatment of Behcet's Syndrome NCT01693653 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.