To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ZKY001 Eye Drops in the Treatment of Corneal Epithelial Defects Caused by Neurotrophic Keratitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: enrollmentstagepriortransplantationstudy treatment
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyefficacy andand safetysafety ofto evaluate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CSB-001 Ophthalmic Solution 0.1% in Neurotrophic Keratitis Subjects NCT04909450 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Efficacy of 20 µg/ml rhNGF New Formulation (With Anti-oxidant) in Patients With Stage 2 and 3 NK NCT02227147 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of rhNGF in Patients With Stage 2 and 3 Neurotrophic Keratitis. NCT01756456 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• REC 0/0559 Eye Drops for Treatment of Moderate and Severe Neurotrophic Keratitis in Adult Patients NCT04276558 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• ZKY001 Eye Drops in the Treatment of Corneal Epithelial Defects in a Phase Ⅱ Clinical Trial NCT06213727 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.