Letrozole vs Danazol for Endometriosis-Related Pain: Randomized Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: letrozolepainchronicdefinedsevere
  Phrases that lowered it: to comparecompare theefficacytrialaged
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Assessment and Prevention of Pain During Ovarian Stimulation in Patients With Endometriosis NCT04002141 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Low-Dose Naltrexone in Combination With Standard Treatment in Women With Endometriosis NCT03970330 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 3 Study to Confirm the Efficacy and Safety of Linzagolix to Treat Endometriosis-associated Pain NCT03986944 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Linzagolix for the Treatment of Endometriosis-associated Pain. NCT03992846 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• DLBS1442 for The Treatment of Pain in Patients Suspected Endometriosis NCT01942122 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.