A Study of Rifabutin and MK-4646 in Healthy Participants (MK-4646-004)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-01-07, after 2025-10-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancermklimited tooral dosesnot limited
Phrases that lowered it: healthyopen labelsingle dosesafety ofevaluate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1634 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1634 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 163 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3104 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 446 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- rifabutin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Clinical Trial of MK-4646 With Bictegravir/Emtricitabine/Tenofovir Alafenamide and Dolutegravir in Healthy Adult Participants (MK-4646) NCT07532304 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- MK-4646 Multiple Dose Trial in Participants With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) (MK-4646-003) NCT07042945 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Effect Efavirenz on the Plasma Levels of MK-7602 in Healthy Participants (MK-7602-005) NCT06797674 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study of MK-0616 in Healthy Adult Participants (MK-0616-009) NCT06592339 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Drug-drug Interaction (DDI) Rifabutin NCT02138084 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.