A Study in Healthy People to Test How Itraconazole Influences the Amount of BI 3031185 in the Blood
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-01-21, after 2025-10-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multiplepressureprbpapply
Phrases that lowered it: healthysingle doseparticipantparticipantsthe effect -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 878 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 878 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 115 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12028 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 565 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- itraconazole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study in Healthy Men to Test How Itraconazole Influences the Amount of BI 1815368 in the Blood NCT05965583 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study in Healthy Men to Test Whether Itraconazole Influences the Amount of BI 1584862 in the Blood NCT06041438 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study in Healthy Men to Test How Itraconazole Influences the Amount of BI 474121 in the Blood NCT04716894 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- This Study in Healthy Men Tests How Itraconazole Influences the Amount of BI 1015550 in the Blood NCT03403439 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- A Study in Healthy Men to Test How Itraconazole Influences the Amount of BI 706321 in the Blood NCT04714073 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.