A Research Study to See if Two Different Formulations of Oral Semaglutide Are Equally Safe and Effective in Reducing the Blood Sugar Level in Japanese People With Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 51.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartchronicnewor equaltype
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantstabletscreeningoral
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 84 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 904 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Oral Semaglutide Versus Liraglutide and Versus Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02863419 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Dose-response, Safety and Efficacy of Oral Semaglutide Versus Placebo and Versus Liraglutide, All as Monotherapy in Japanese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03018028 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Oral Semaglutide Versus Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes and Moderate Renal Impairment NCT02827708 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Oral Semaglutide Versus Dulaglutide Both in Combination With One OAD (Oral Antidiabetic Drug) in Japanese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03015220 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Oral Semaglutide Versus Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Treated With Diet and Exercise Only NCT02906930 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.