Selective β2-AR Antagonism in Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebosubjectcontrolledascendingdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmahealthyfev1to moderatemild to
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Effects of PT027 (Budesonide/Albuterol Sulfate) Metered-dose Inhaler Compared With Placebo on Exercise-Induced Bronchoconstriction in Adult Patients With Asthma NCT06245551 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study to Evaluate RPT193 in Adults With Moderate to Severe T2-high Asthma NCT05935332 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy & Safety of Tralokinumab in Adults & Adolescents With OCS Dependent Asthma NCT02281357 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy & Safety of Tralokinumab in Subjects With Asthma Inadequately Controlled on Corticosteroids NCT02449473 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of MDT-637 in Subjects With Intermittent, or Mild-to-Moderate Persistent, Asthma NCT01556607 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.