HAIC Plus Systemic Chemotherapy, Lenvatinib and Toripalimab in Advanced ICC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapylocallyinfusionmetastaticcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: the upperhepatictimes thearterialevaluation
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 180 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 223 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Hepatic Arterial Infusion Chemotherapy Combined With Tislelizumab and Regorafenib as First-Line Therapy for Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma NCT07619937 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study of Second-line Treatment With Apatinib in Patients With Advanced Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma NCT03251443 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• HAIC With Oxaliplatin, 5-FU and Bevacizumab Plus Intravenous Toripalimab for Advanced BTC NCT04217954 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Systemic Chemotherapy in Combination With Conventional Transarterial Chemoembolization in Patients With Advanced Intra-Hepatic Cholangiocarcinoma NCT02994251 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Two-cohort Study of Toripalimab(PD1)+Lenvatnib, or Gemox+Lenvatinib in Advanced Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma NCT04361331 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.