Efficacy of Low-dose PT-Cy for Prevention of GVHD in Ambulatory Allogeneic HSCT

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantallogeneiccellfailurestem
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacypatientsbloodfunctionalcriteria
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16000 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 154504 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PT-CY With or Without Low-dose ATG for Lymphoid Malignancies Undergoing Allo-HSCT NCT04118075 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Donor Stem Cell Transplant Followed by Cyclophosphamide in Treating Patients With Hematological Diseases NCT02248597 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Post Transplant Cyclophosphamide (PTCY) as Sole Graft Versus Host Disease (GVHD) Prophylaxis for Matched Allotransplant: CYRIC NCT03263767 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Busulfan and Fludarabine Followed by Post-transplant Cyclophosphamide NCT00800839 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Using a Non-myeloablative Preparative Regimen of Total Lymphoid Irradiation and Anti-thymocyte Globulin for Older Patients With Relapsed Lymphoid Malignancies NCT01566656 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.