Study of ENV-294 in Healthy Adults and in Adults With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: admoderate toto severesafeextension
  Phrases that lowered it: effecthealthydermatitisvisitatopic
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Learn About the Study Medicine Etrasimod in Adults With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis (AD) Who Have Already Tried Treatments Taken by Mouth or by Injection NCT05732454 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of CT327 in Atopic Dermatitis NCT01808157 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacodynamics of EP262 in Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT06144424 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of LEO 152020 Tablets for the Treatment of Adults With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05117060 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3375880 in Adults With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03831191 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.