A Clinical Trial of MK-2828 in People With Kidney Disease (MK-2828-006)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (233 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: strokeegfrthe followinggastrointestinal cardiovascularstable
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyimpairmentthe pharmacokineticsasthmapharmacokinetic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1668 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 24 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of MK-5684 in Male Participants With Severe Renal Impairment (RI) and With End-stage Renal Disease (ESRD) (MK-5684-010) NCT06814132 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Safety of a Single Intravenous (IV) Dose of MK-3866 in Participants With Impaired Renal Function and in Healthy Controls (MK-3866-005) NCT03259087 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study of Pharmacokinetics of a Single IV Dose of CB-238,618 in Subjects With Varying Degrees of Renal Impairment Compared to Healthy Subjects (MK-6183-001) NCT02341599 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Two-Part, Single-Dose Study of the Pharmacokinetics of MK-8931 in Subjects With Renal Insufficiency (MK-8931-009 [P08535]) NCT01537757 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Effect of Renal Impairment on the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of AZD6234 NCT06845813 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.