Testing APPA-1 in Healthy Subjects and Osteoarthritis Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-31, after 2018-04-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: to determinereceivingulnto screeningvitamin
Phrases that lowered it: healthymaleosteoarthritissingletopical -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 18 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Safety Evaluation of Aminophylline and Ambrisentan When Administered Orally Alone and in Combination to Healthy Volunteers NCT01530464 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Single Ascending Dose, Multiple Ascending Dose, Food Effect Study With AP31969 NCT06066099 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Assessment of Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of ATH-063 in Healthy Subjects NCT05807971 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Single and Multiple Ascending Oral Doses of Avenanthramide NCT06101784 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP015K in Healthy Subjects NCT02141425 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.