Safety and Efficacy Study of Ferric Maltol To Treat Iron Deficiency Anaemia in Chinese Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationirondiseasesubjects withbowel
  Phrases that lowered it: visitsubjects whothe screeningthe efficacyindex
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral Ferric Maltol Compared to Intravenous Iron To Treat Iron Deficiency Anaemia in IBD NCT02680756 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Iron Oligosaccharide in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Subjects With Iron Deficiency Anaemia NCT01017614 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Iron Isomaltoside 1000 (Monofer®) Administered by a High Dosing Regimen in Subjects With Inflammatory Bowel Disease NCT01599702 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the PK, Safety, Tolerability of Ferric Maltol at 3 Dosage Levels in Paediatric Subjects With Iron Deficiency NCT03181451 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Open-label PK Study of Iron Isomaltoside 1000 (Monofer) Administered by 500 mg IV Injection or 1000 mg IV Infusion to Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease NCT01213680 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.