Safety and Efficacy of Topical AT-004 1% in Participants With Acne Vulgaris (AV)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapybaselineand efficacyto determinerandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvisitthe trialtopicalacne
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of S6G5T-1 and S6G5T-3 for the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02661958 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetic Study of MTC896 Gel in Subjects With Acne NCT02293018 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Generic Tazarotene Cream, 0.1% in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02160678 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Clinical End Point Study of Generic Adapalene and Benzoyl Peroxide Gel Versus Epiduo® Forte Gel in Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02651220 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Adapalene Gel 0.3% in Subjects With Facial Acne Vulgaris NCT03650361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.