Study Evaluating Safety of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Healthy Elderly Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticstagechroniceligibledisease
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationsingledosesthe safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 262 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 68 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a 20-Valent Pneumococcal Vaccine in Adults 65 Years of Age or Older With Prior Pneumococcal Vaccination NCT03835975 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Trial Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of a 13-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Japanese Elderly Adults Aged 65 Years Old and Older NCT01646398 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• 13-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Study in Adults => 50 Years of Age in Mexico NCT01432262 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity Study of a 24-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (VAX-24) in Older Adults NCT05297578 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a 20-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Pneumococcal Vaccine-naïve Adults NCT03760146 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.