Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a 20-Valent Pneumococcal Vaccine in Adults 65 Years of Age or Older With Prior Pneumococcal Vaccination
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-02-12, after 2019-02-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: greateror equalequal tochronicdialysis
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinationvaccineimmunogenicitypneumococcalmale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1783 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 65 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1783 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 157 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of 3 Lots of 20-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Pneumococcal Vaccine-Naïve Adults NCT03828617 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a 20-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Pneumococcal Vaccine-naïve Adults NCT03760146 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating Safety of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Healthy Elderly Subjects NCT00500266 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of Pneumococcal Conjugate Formulations in Healthy Adults 18 Through 49 Years of Age NCT05489328 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Multivalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Adults 60 Through 64 Years of Age NCT03313037 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.