Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Certolizumab Pegol for Induction of Remission in Patients With Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebosubjectscontrolleddouble blindscore
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacyto evaluate
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Extension Study to Assess Long Term Safety in Children and Adolescents With Crohn's Disease Receiving Certolizumab Pegol NCT01190410 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Certolizumab Pegol for the Treatment of Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00717236 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Moderate to Low Disease Activity Study NCT00674362 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety of Long Term Therapy of Certolizumab Pegol Patients With Crohn's Disease NCT00552344 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Certolizumab Pegol in Subjects With Active Axial Spondyloarthritis NCT01087762 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.