A Study to Evaluate Safety of Long Term Therapy of Certolizumab Pegol Patients With Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectlong termsubjectsassessterm safety
  Phrases that lowered it: safety oftrialclinicalparticipatedinduction
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Use of Certolizumab Pegol for Treatment of Active Crohn's Disease in Children and Adolescents NCT00899678 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Extension Study to Assess Long Term Safety in Children and Adolescents With Crohn's Disease Receiving Certolizumab Pegol NCT01190410 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Certolizumab Pegol for Induction of Remission in Patients With Crohn's Disease NCT00552058 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Long-term Treatment Study of Certolizumab Pegol (CDP870) as Add-on Medication to Methotrexate in Japanese Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Patients NCT00851318 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Open Label Extension for Patients Coming From the Dosing Flexibility Study in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT00753454 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.