A Study to Evaluate Pertuzumab + Trastuzumab + Docetaxel vs. Placebo + Trastuzumab + Docetaxel in Previously Untreated HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacancercellrandomizationsquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantopen labelefficacy andand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Pertuzumab + Trastuzumab + Docetaxel Versus Placebo + Trastuzumab + Docetaxel in Previously Untreated Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02896855 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pertuzumab and Trastuzumab Subcutaneous (SC) Treatment in Combination With a Taxane in Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02019277 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy, and Safety of Subcutaneous Administration of the Fixed-Dose Combination of Pertuzumab and Trastuzumab in Combination With Chemotherapy in Participants With HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer NCT03493854 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Study in Participants With Early-Stage or Locally Advanced Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (HER) 2-Positive Breast Cancer to Evaluate Treatment With Trastuzumab Plus (+) Pertuzumab + Docetaxel Compared With Trastuzumab + Placebo + Docetaxel NCT02586025 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Trastuzumab Emtansine Versus the Combination of Trastuzumab Plus Docetaxel in Patients With HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT02144012 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.