Study of Combined Fulvestrant and Everolimus in Advanced/Metastatic Breast Cancer After Aromatase Inhibitor Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 23% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: everolimusgreaterfailuredefinedpatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: trialreceivedpatients whoclinicalinvestigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Fulvestrant +/- Everolimus in Post-Menopausal, Hormone-Receptor + Metastatic Breast Ca Resistant to AI NCT01797120 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Phase II Trial of EVEROLIMUS ± Trastuzumab in Hormone-Refractory Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00912340 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Everolimus Combined With Anti-estrogen Therapy in Hormone-Receptor-Positive HER-2 Negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02291913 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Everolimus Beyond Progression NCT02269670 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized Study of AZD2014 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02216786 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.