Everolimus Combined With Anti-estrogen Therapy in Hormone-Receptor-Positive HER-2 Negative Advanced Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-01-31, after 2014-12-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticeverolimusmetastasesbraincancer
Phrases that lowered it: ovariansolidtumors12patients who -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 110 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 6 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 42130 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6439 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anastrozole, everolimus, exemestane, fulvestrant, letrozole, tamoxifen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase II Trial of EVEROLIMUS ± Trastuzumab in Hormone-Refractory Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00912340 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Study of Fulvestrant +/- Everolimus in Post-Menopausal, Hormone-Receptor + Metastatic Breast Ca Resistant to AI NCT01797120 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Study of Combined Fulvestrant and Everolimus in Advanced/Metastatic Breast Cancer After Aromatase Inhibitor Failure NCT00570921 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of Everolimus Beyond Progression NCT02269670 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Dose EScalation Induction of EvERolimus NCT02387099 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.