Dose EScalation Induction of EvERolimus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerstagemetastatic breasther2colitis
  Phrases that lowered it: everolimusevaluate thepughto evaluateimpaired
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 21 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of EVEROLIMUS ± Trastuzumab in Hormone-Refractory Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00912340 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Everolimus Beyond Progress for Patients Who Had Progress Under Everolimus and Exemestane NCT01773460 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Study of Fulvestrant +/- Everolimus in Post-Menopausal, Hormone-Receptor + Metastatic Breast Ca Resistant to AI NCT01797120 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Everolimus Combined With Anti-estrogen Therapy in Hormone-Receptor-Positive HER-2 Negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02291913 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Letrozole and Lapatinib Followed by Everolimus in Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01499160 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.