Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AEB071 in Patients With Active, Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: colitisulcerativetherapyactivecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyhepatitisalcoholevaluate theinvestigator
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 218 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 241 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Etrasimod (APD334) in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis NCT02447302 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Apremilast to Treat Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02289417 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Asacol™ 4.8 g/Day (800 mg Tablets) for the Treatment of Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT01059344 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety, Efficacy, and Biomarker Response of BMS-986165 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT04613518 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Deucravacitinib in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT03934216 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.